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Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00Z
CME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -50
Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-13T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/13114/1
Model Inputs:
2017-09-09T16:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=82.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=465.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2017-09-10T00:54Z
2017-09-09T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=92.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=333.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2017-09-10T04:24Z
2017-09-10T16:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=85.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=2650.0, HalfAngle=54.0, Time21.5=2017-09-10T17:18Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2017-09-13T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2017-09-11T20:09Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2017-09-13T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20170910_005500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 33.73 hour(s)
Difference: -6.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2017-09-11T09:42Z

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